Cambridge Civic Journal Forum

December 7, 2013

RECOUNT UPDATE (Dec 7, 5:15pm)

Filed under: 2013 Election,Cambridge,City Council,elections — Tags: , , — Robert Winters @ 3:56 pm
Changes in Cheung Surplus Transfer (Official to Recount)
Candidate   expected   Official   Recount   Gain 
Kelley, Craig 66 74 65 -9
Maher, David 63 68 69 +1
vanBeuzekom, Minka  60 64 56 8
McGovern, Marc 64 61 60 -1
Simmons, Denise 47 49 51 +2
Reeves, Ken 46 37 46 +9
Seidel, Sam 40 37 47 +10
Mazen, Nadeem 33 36 41 +5
Smith, Jefferson 31 28 26 -2
Benzan, Dennis 24 25 20 -5
Carlone, Dennis 27 25 21 -4
Toomey, Tim 26 24 24 0
von Hoffmann, Kristen 19 20 20 0
House, Janneke 26 19 21 +2
Lee, James 10 10 11 +1
Leslie, Logan 10 10 14 +4
Vasquez, Luis 7 9 11 +2
Phillips, Lesley 4 7 4 -3
Mirza, Mushtaque 6 5 4 -1
Mello, Gary 3 4 5 +1
Williamson, James 2 2 0 -2
Moree, Gregg J.  0 1 0 -1
Yarden, Elie 1 1 0 -1
Peden, Ron 2 0 1 +1
write-ins 0 0 0 0
Total surplus 617 616 617 1
Dec 7 Update: Based on that actual ballot data, the expected
values for the surplus transfers are shown in the 1st column.

RECOUNT UPDATE (Dec 7, 5:15pm)

The distribution of Leland Cheung’s 617 surplus ballots was completed today. There were a few big swings in the number of ballots transferred to particular candidates, but it appears at this point unlikely that there will be any change in who will ultimately be elected.

The candidates who gained the most in the new surplus distribution are Sam Seidel (+10) and Ken Reeves (+9), though neither will ultimately benefit from these gains. Nadeem Mazen also picked up an additional 5 ballots. The candidates who suffered the greatest loss from Original Count to Recount are Craig Kelley (–9) and Minka vanBeuzekom (–8). Dennis Carlone also lost 4 ballots in this surplus distribution.

What this basically means is that the likely outcome when this gets to the deciding round (the 17th Count this time) will be that Craig Kelley and Nadeem Mazen should have approximately the same number of ballots (7th and 8th place) followed by Dennis Carlone (9th place); and the gap between Carlone and Minka vanBeuzekom will likely be greater than in the original count.

Perhaps the only uncertainty in this may be in how the additional ballots picked up by Sam Seidel and Ken Reeves may eventually find their way to the continuing candidates when they are counted out in the 15th and 16th Counts.

It was anticipated that as soon as Leland Cheung’s surplus distribution was made official, the election workers would commence the counting out of candidates with fewer than 50 ballots (Gregg Moree), then Ron Peden, then James Williamson. This all depended upon how far they would get before the expected close of the day at around 5:00pm, but they never got past the 2nd Count. The counting out of minor candidates will begin Monday morning at 8:30am. The ballots of most, but not all, of the continuing candidates have already been matched and sequenced in accordance with the original count, so many of the next few rounds should go relatively quickly. – Robert Winters

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