Cambridge Civic Journal Forum

February 9, 2014

Leaving Cincinnati? Feb 10, 2014 Cambridge City Council Agenda Highlights

Filed under: Cambridge,City Council,elections — Tags: , , , — Robert Winters @ 9:33 pm

Leaving Cincinnati? Feb 10, 2014 Cambridge City Council Agenda Highlights

Here are a few Agenda items that sparked some interest.

Manager’s Agenda #5. Transmitting communication from Richard C. Rossi, City Manager, relative to the appointment of the Early Education Services Task Force.

As the report states, "The charge to the Task Force is to identify a range of possible options for expansion of early childhood services and to explore the benefits and challenges of each option." Candidates and elected officials have talked for some time about the value of early education services as an effective means of preventing future achievement gaps and other hardships. Many people believe that directing these resources early may lessen the need for corrective action later. We have now apparently entered into the planning and implementation phase of this initiative.

Manager’s Agenda #6. Transmitting communication from Richard C. Rossi, City Manager, relative to Awaiting Report Item Number 14-03, regarding the progress of the Eastern Cambridge Kendall Square Open Space Planning Committee.

The ECKOS planning study committee has been meeting for much of this past year to develop an initial vision and goals for the entire open space network in Kendall Square and vicinity building upon the K2C2 Planning Study. There is now underway a planning and design competition. My only question is where they will be locating the miniature golf course. I’m dead serious. Think about how amazing it would be to have a sculpture garden that doubles as a mini-golf course.

Manager’s Agenda #7. Transmitting communication from Richard C. Rossi, City Manager, relative to Awaiting Report Item Number 14-02, regarding a report on determining whether Councillors "replying all" to emails, addressed to the council@cambridgema.gov on business that may subsequently come before the Council are unintentionally violating the Massachusetts Open Meeting Law.

Though everyone applauds the goal of transparency in public process and open meetings that encourage civic participation, one really has to wonder if we’ve now gone way over to the other side when every interaction among elected officials and between elected officials and the public entails the risk technically violating this law. I simply cannot believe this was the intention of the legislature when they drafted the current version of the law.

Manager’s Agenda #9. Transmitting communication from Richard C. Rossi, City Manager, relative to the City of Cambridge retaining the noteworthy distinction of being one of approximately 33 municipalities in the United States with three AAA ratings from the nation’s three major credit rating agencies.

We’ve come to take Cambridge’s credit-worthiness for granted, but it’s the result of the City administration and the City Council maintaining a steady financial plan even as we’ve undertaken some very ambitious and expensive projects. We often hear about Cambridge’s "free cash" and excess levy capacity whenever someone wants the City to break the bank to pay for another public amenity, but maintaining such a buffer is precisely why our bond ratings are so good.

Unfinished Business #3. That City Council Rule 35A be amended to provide that no suspension of the rules shall be required for late ceremonial resolutions filed after the close of the meeting agenda or before resolutions are voted on at the meeting. [Order Number Eight of Feb 3, 2014 Placed on Unfinished Business on Feb 3, 2014.]

Unfinished Business #4. A communication was received from Donna P. Lopez, City Clerk transmitting a letter from Mayor David P. Maher regarding the Ad-Hoc Committee relative to changes to Rule 26 of the City Council Rules. [Communication and Report from City Officers Number Four of Feb 3, 2014 Placed on Unfinished Business on Feb 3, 2014.]

It was interesting to hear some of the back-and-forth at last week’s City Council meeting about these proposed rules changes. The most significant changes are the reduction of the number of City Council Committees from 17 to 11 and the establishment of quorums for each of these committees. The proposals are simple, sensible, and workable (in spite of being called "fierce and complicated" by one observer). If all goes well, the rules changes (mainly the consolidation of committees) will be voted at this meeting and the City Council committee appointments will be made public. I’m looking forward to seeing how well this group of nine works together on specific matters in committee.

Resolution #1. Congratulations to State Representative Marjorie Decker for spearheading an amendment to fund a total of $13.5 million in Cambridge infrastructure transportation projects that was unanimously passed by the members of the State House of Representatives.   Vice Mayor Benzan

Though it clearly takes more than one representative in a House of 140 members to bring home the bacon, it’s good to see Marjorie Decker and the entire Cambridge delegation getting the job done. My understanding is that the Mass. State Senate and ultimately the Governor still have to weigh in before the deal is done. The noted $13.5 million is for the design and reconstruction of roads and sidewalks in Harvard Square and on River Street. There is also $3 million for completing the design and construction of the Inlet Bridge connecting North Point Park to the O’Brien Highway; $1.5 million for the design of a rail trail in the Grand Junction Railroad corridor in Cambridge, Somerville and Charlestown; $1.3 million for the Watertown Greenway which runs from Watertown to the Fresh Pond Reservation in Cambridge; $500,000 for construction at Fresh Pond Parkway and Mount Auburn Street; and $500,000 for a new pedestrian bridge at Alewife. None of this is final, but the signs are good.

Order #3. That the City Manager is requested to confer with all relevant city departments and engage with the leadership of Globe Direct to ensure that Cambridge residents who have not subscribed to weekly Globe Direct circulars and have indicated that they do not wish to receive more are promptly removed from further distribution lists.   Councillor Cheung, Councillor McGovern and Councillor Carlone

Committee Report #1. A communication was received from Donna P. Lopez, City Clerk, transmitting a report from Councillor David P. Maher, Chair of the Ordinance Committee for a public hearing held on Dec 19, 2013 to conduct a public hearing on an amendment to the Municipal Code in Chapter 8.68 entitled relating to Plastic Bag Reduction.

The topic of Order #3 is also contained in the committee report, i.e. those unnecessary red plastic bags containing advertisements that now litter Cambridge porches, sidewalks, and anywhere else they can toss them. The main subject of the committee report is a proposed ban on plastic shopping bags that’s been kicked around for the last year or two. I need to point out that opinions are not unanimous in the recycling advocacy world on this topic. If plastic bags are replaced by paper bags, this is not necessarily a net positive from an environmental point of view. The hope is that the use of reusable grocery bags will greatly increase, and a proposed mandatory fee on paper bags is meant to encourage this. It’s also worth mentioning that many Cambridge residents (perhaps most) do their grocery shopping outside of Cambridge, e.g. the Somerville Market Basket, and may bu only minimally affected by this proposed ordinance.

Order #6. That the City Manager is requested to confer with the Law Department and the Election Commission to determine what steps would be necessary to change the method by which surplus votes are transferred in municipal elections and whether the Fractional Transfer Method could replace the Cincinnati Method.   Councillor Carlone

This is a good Order but it needs at least one more "Whereas" to emphasize the real reason why this reform should be considered. Allow me to go through this point by point (and you can feel free to tune this out if you’ve heard this before):

First, let’s be clear that a candidate does not need to reach the election quota in order to be elected. The purpose of the quota to to limit the number of ballots a winning candidate is allowed to keep in order to assure proportional representation. It does happen in some elections that candidates elected late in the process do not reach quota, but all other candidates have then been defeated and the number of candidates is reduced to the number to be elected.

It’s true that the Cincinnati method involves an element of chance, and that never sits well with people. It is, however, a fair system in that there is no systematic bias for or against any individual candidate, election precinct, or any subset of the electorate. The fact that shuffling and then recounting the ballots may give slightly different results is a serious problem, especially if there’s a close election.

The primary reason why a change should be considered to a system that is independent of ballot order is not because the current method in unfair, but rather because it creates a perverse incentive for a losing candidate to seek a recount solely to take advantage of this random element. The recent Recount cost an additional $109,604 and served only to prove the relative accuracy of the original scan of the ballots. [It should also be noted that much of this cost is caused by the substantial time needed to recreate the original ballot order. If this sequence didn’t matter, things would go a lot faster and cost far less.]

The Fractional Transfer Method noted in the Council Order is a ballot-order-independent method, but it must be noted that this requires somewhat more than simply changing the way surplus ballots are transferred. An equally important aspect of the method is how it deals with the election of a candidate during a round. In order to not have ballots transferred early in the round be treated differently than those transferred later in the round, it’s necessary that candidates be allowed to go over-quota during the round and then have their total reduced to quota using the same fractional transfer rules. The Fractional Transfer Method is actually the default option for the tabulation software Cambridge uses. The use of the Cambridge Rules is an optional set of rules built into the software.

The real purpose of the Order is to get information from the Law Department and the Election Commission about what steps would be required in order to make a change. The Election Commission can make changes to the procedures by simple majority vote to another method consistent with the principles of the law, but only to another method in use at the time of enactment of the law (1938), and there is no evidence of Fractional Transfer being in use anywhere at that time. The real goal should be to add this method to the list of permissible methods now that it can be done simply and quickly using modern technology. It is likely that this can be accomplished via a Home Rule Petition and a subsequent Special Act of the State Legislature. However, it’s important to also clarify how such a change might affect other provisions in the law, e.g. the right to a manual recount. It would perhaps be best if the standard for a recount could be clarified so that verification of voter intent followed by a computer count would be the preferred procedure should there be a call for a recount.

In anticipation of future conversations about this, today I carried out the Fractional Transfer Method and compared it with the Cincinnati Method for 7 City Council elections from 2001 through 2013. I will be happy to share the results with anyone who is interested (the winners are the same, by the way, though order of election does change in some elections). I also plan to do this for School Committee elections over this same period. – Robert Winters

December 12, 2013

2013 City Council Recount Completed – Same Winners, Similar Margins

Filed under: 2013 Election,Cambridge,City Council,elections — Tags: , , , — Robert Winters @ 11:56 pm

Recount Completed – Same Winners, Similar Margins

Dec 12, 2013 – The 2013 City Council Election Recount is now complete: Recount Results (PDF, 2 pages)

FinalRecount

Note: This chart was modified from an earlier version to reflect a correction in Count 15.

RECOUNT UPDATE – 16th Count Complete: Deciding round up next (Dec 12)

Filed under: 2013 Election,Cambridge,elections — Tags: , , , — Robert Winters @ 1:18 pm

RECOUNT UPDATE – 16th Count Complete: Deciding round up next

Day 9 (today) will likely be the last day of the City Council Election Recount. They have no counted out Sam Seidel and Ken Reeves is next. At the end of that rount (Count 17) the winners will be determined (and it’s pretty much certain that they will be the same as the original winners with a margin between Carlone and vanBeuzekom in the 16-22 ballot range, though there are about 17 other ballots in play during the Reeves transfer that could narrow the margin a bit.

Here’s the latest: Results at the end of the 16th Count (PDF)

UPDATE (5:40pm) – The 17th Count has been completed except for the totals and any last verification of ballots. The results will be announced shortly and the remaining winners declared. The winners will be the same as in the original election results. The margin between 9th Place (Carlone) and 10th Place (vanBeuzekom) will also be approximately the same as in the original results – anywhere between 14 and 22 votes (by my estimate). I’ll post all the details as soon as its been made official and I get the remaining numbers. – Robert Winters

December 11, 2013

RECOUNT UPDATE (Dec 11, 3:00pm)

Filed under: 2013 Election,elections — Tags: , , , — Robert Winters @ 3:05 pm

Cambridge City Council Election Recount – 13th Count Complete
Right now the margin between 9th and 10th place in the deciding round projects to about 14 votes, but candidates Seidel and Reeves each have 11 more ballots than they previously did and, when Seidel (16th Count) and Reeves (17th Count) are defeated, vanBeuzekom and Kelley could gain a few to narrow the margin. Though an upset is very unlikely, this ain’t over yet.
Count13

UPDATE – 14th Count Complete (3:24pm)
The projected margin between Carlone and van Beuzekom is now down to 12. Seidel (16th Count) has an additional 10 ballots and Reeves (17th Count) has an additional 11 ballots compared to the original count. When defeated, vanBeuzekom and Kelley could gain a few more ballots than Mazen and Carlone to narrow the margin. Again, this ain’t over.
Count14

The remaining rounds with transferred ballot numbers from the original count look like this (updated Dec 12, 9am):
Count14a-projection
After trimming out some excess caused by earlier rounds, there are really only about 18 ballots in play and the margin between Carlone and vanBeuzekom projects to about 18 in the deciding round. This is starting to look pretty settled now.

December 9, 2013

10th Count complete – Cambridge City Council Recount

Filed under: 2013 Election,Cambridge — Tags: , , — Robert Winters @ 5:35 pm

They’re cruising along. This how far they got before closing up shop today around 5:00pm.

I’m getting some of the numbers 2nd hand, so I hope this is all correct. I’ll check and correct later, if necessary.

10thCount

December 7, 2013

RECOUNT UPDATE (Dec 7, 5:15pm)

Filed under: 2013 Election,Cambridge,City Council,elections — Tags: , , — Robert Winters @ 3:56 pm
Changes in Cheung Surplus Transfer (Official to Recount)
Candidate   expected   Official   Recount   Gain 
Kelley, Craig 66 74 65 -9
Maher, David 63 68 69 +1
vanBeuzekom, Minka  60 64 56 8
McGovern, Marc 64 61 60 -1
Simmons, Denise 47 49 51 +2
Reeves, Ken 46 37 46 +9
Seidel, Sam 40 37 47 +10
Mazen, Nadeem 33 36 41 +5
Smith, Jefferson 31 28 26 -2
Benzan, Dennis 24 25 20 -5
Carlone, Dennis 27 25 21 -4
Toomey, Tim 26 24 24 0
von Hoffmann, Kristen 19 20 20 0
House, Janneke 26 19 21 +2
Lee, James 10 10 11 +1
Leslie, Logan 10 10 14 +4
Vasquez, Luis 7 9 11 +2
Phillips, Lesley 4 7 4 -3
Mirza, Mushtaque 6 5 4 -1
Mello, Gary 3 4 5 +1
Williamson, James 2 2 0 -2
Moree, Gregg J.  0 1 0 -1
Yarden, Elie 1 1 0 -1
Peden, Ron 2 0 1 +1
write-ins 0 0 0 0
Total surplus 617 616 617 1
Dec 7 Update: Based on that actual ballot data, the expected
values for the surplus transfers are shown in the 1st column.

RECOUNT UPDATE (Dec 7, 5:15pm)

The distribution of Leland Cheung’s 617 surplus ballots was completed today. There were a few big swings in the number of ballots transferred to particular candidates, but it appears at this point unlikely that there will be any change in who will ultimately be elected.

The candidates who gained the most in the new surplus distribution are Sam Seidel (+10) and Ken Reeves (+9), though neither will ultimately benefit from these gains. Nadeem Mazen also picked up an additional 5 ballots. The candidates who suffered the greatest loss from Original Count to Recount are Craig Kelley (–9) and Minka vanBeuzekom (–8). Dennis Carlone also lost 4 ballots in this surplus distribution.

What this basically means is that the likely outcome when this gets to the deciding round (the 17th Count this time) will be that Craig Kelley and Nadeem Mazen should have approximately the same number of ballots (7th and 8th place) followed by Dennis Carlone (9th place); and the gap between Carlone and Minka vanBeuzekom will likely be greater than in the original count.

Perhaps the only uncertainty in this may be in how the additional ballots picked up by Sam Seidel and Ken Reeves may eventually find their way to the continuing candidates when they are counted out in the 15th and 16th Counts.

It was anticipated that as soon as Leland Cheung’s surplus distribution was made official, the election workers would commence the counting out of candidates with fewer than 50 ballots (Gregg Moree), then Ron Peden, then James Williamson. This all depended upon how far they would get before the expected close of the day at around 5:00pm, but they never got past the 2nd Count. The counting out of minor candidates will begin Monday morning at 8:30am. The ballots of most, but not all, of the continuing candidates have already been matched and sequenced in accordance with the original count, so many of the next few rounds should go relatively quickly. – Robert Winters

December 6, 2013

RECOUNT UPDATE (Dec 6, 2013)

Filed under: 2013 Election,Cambridge,elections — Tags: , , — Robert Winters @ 9:29 pm

RECOUNT UPDATE

Dec 6 – The 2013 Cambridge City Council Election Recount finished its fifth day today. The distribution and counting of ballots according to #1 Votes was completed early in the day and the results announced (see below). The rest of the day was dedicated to matching Leland Cheung’s #1 paper ballots with replica ballots created from the official electronic record of his #1 votes. This is necessary prior to any drawing and distribution of surplus ballots to other candidates (2nd Count) because of the legal requirement that ballot transfers must follow the same course as in the official results unless the discovery of an error warrants otherwise.

The matching of ballots and ballot records will continue on Saturday and, hopefully, the 2nd Count will then be carried out. Once that is complete, most of the uncertainty about the eventual election outcome will be removed since subsequent transfer rounds as candidates are defeated should proceed more or less as they did in the Official Count. The matching of paper ballots and ballot records will occur in later rounds whenever ballot order is relevant. – Robert Winters

Revised Ward & Precinct Totals for City Council Election (Recount)

Differences between Official Results (Nov 15) and Recount

Recount - Photo by Tom Stohlman
panoramic photo by Tom Stohlman

December 4, 2013

Cambridge InsideOut – Episodes 23 and 24

Cambridge InsideOut Episode 23 – The Recount Commences. Broadcast Dec 3, 2013, 5:30pm.

Cambridge InsideOut Episode 24 – Looking Deeper at the Ballot Data. Broadcast Dec 3, 2013, 6:00pm.

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