Cambridge Civic Journal Forum

December 16, 2023

Municipal Election Voting Comparison: 2021 vs. 2023 (and then some)

Filed under: 2017 election,2019 election,2021 election,2023 election,Cambridge,City Council,elections,School Committee — Tags: , , , — Robert Winters @ 1:57 pm

Municipal Election Voting Comparison: 2021 vs. 2023

I am just now beginning to analyze the voting patterns of the recent municipal election compared to previous years. There’s a lot more analysis to come, but here’s a quick chart showing histograms of the number of people who voted by age (in 3-year groupings):

Comparison of 2021 vs. 2023 voters by age
Number of people voting in the 2021 vs. 2023 municipal elections

Note, in particular, that the number of people voting in the 24-35 age range jumped considerably, the number of people in the 56-67 age range actually dropped, and the number of people in the 74-82 age range increased considerably. The number of people voting increased from 22,097 to 23,478 (based on available data from the registered voter list and the voter history files).

Here’s the sequence of histograms for 2017 through 2023:

voted 2017

voted 2019

voted 2021

voted 2023

Here are the changes in number of people who voted for 2017 to 2019, 2019 to 2021, and 2021 to 2023:

change from 2017 to 2019

change from 2019 to 2021

change from 2021 to 2023

Feel free to interpret these changes as you see fit. Possible causes are changing demographics, who was targeted by candidates, and specific issues such as bike lanes and the AHO. More to come as the spirit moves me. – RW

December 15, 2018

Cambridge School Committee 2017 Campaign Finance Summaries and $/Vote

Filed under: 2017 election,Cambridge,campaign finance,School Committee — Tags: , , , — Robert Winters @ 8:00 pm

Cambridge School Committee 2017 Campaign Finance Summaries

CandidateFromToStartReceiptsExpendBalanceLiabilities#1 Votes$/VoteNotes
Bowman, Mannika1/1/1612/31/17$2,005.37$17,169.72$15,578.13$3,596.96$0.002768$5.63
Cronin, Fran1/1/1612/31/17$3,095.36$24,806.00$26,687.34$1,214.02$0.001572$16.98
Crutchfield, Jacob1/1/161/17/18$41.07$5,931.00$5,972.07$0.00$0.001039$5.75dissolution
Dexter, Emily1/1/1612/31/17$2,575.32$2,695.00$5,118.58$151.74$4,655.382378$2.15
Fantini, Fred1/1/1612/31/17$5,475.07$8,425.00$9,716.06$4,184.01$14,695.992728$3.56
Kadete, Elechi1/1/1612/31/17$48.48$7,274.00$7,173.08$149.40$0.00846$8.48
Kelly, Kathleen1/1/1612/31/17$5,687.05$13,295.00$7,809.39$11,172.66$3,000.001882$4.15
Kimbrough, Laurance1/1/1712/31/17$0.00$10,325.94$9,766.90$559.04$0.001856$5.26
MacArthur, Will11/4/1612/31/17$0.00$5,492.43$4,264.87$1,227.56$0.00795$5.36
Mitros, Piotr1/1/1712/31/17$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00511$0.00dissolution
Nolan, Patty1/1/1612/31/17$80.24$9,415.00$9,393.97$101.27$8,850.003458$2.72
Weinstein, David1/1/1612/31/17$1,604.03$3,395.00$4,488.26$510.77$0.00797$5.63
School Committee Campaign Finance 2017 - updated Dec 15, 2018

The receipts and expenses shown cover the period from Jan 1, 2016 through Dec 31, 2017.

You can access the full reports here.

Vote!

February 11, 2018

2017 City Council Campaign Receipts, Expenditures, and $/Vote – FINAL REPORT

Filed under: 2017 election,Cambridge,campaign finance,City Council — Tags: , , — Robert Winters @ 3:27 pm

The following table shows the total campaign receipts and expenditures for 2017 Cambridge City Council candidates. You can sort by any of the fields shown by clicking on the field name – one click ascending and second click descending. Figures reflect the period from Dec 1, 2016 through Jan 31, 2018.

Note: You can see the figures for the 2019 City Council election here.

CandidateIDReceiptsCambridge% CambridgeExpenditures
(to Jan 31)		#1 Votes$/Vote
Moree, Gregg14683$905.22$905.22100.0%$905.2246$19.68
Devereux, Jan16062$59,949.50$54,043.5090.1%$50,613.591699$29.79
Levy, Ilan16173$13,706.86$12,350.0090.1%$12,008.79246$48.82
Kelley, Craig14104$26,327.86$20,500.6077.9%$24,886.391092$22.79
Musgrave, Adriane16657$34,162.97$26,223.9976.8%$33,749.31
580$58.19
D'Ambrosio, Olivia16520$7,900.00$5,600.0070.9%$7,945.19216$36.78
Carlone, Dennis15680$40,675.89$28,275.0069.5%$35,908.611176$30.53
Harding, Richard16737$34,500.49$22,641.0065.6%$34,318.46836$41.05
Mallon, Alanna16530$55,932.88$36,539.7065.3%$51,094.851329$38.45
Burgin, Josh16709$24,189.02$14,124.5258.4%$24,104.02392$61.49
Sutton, Bryan16713$1,314.44$719.9554.8%$1,293.0845$28.74
McGovern, Marc15589$88,717.14$48,362.4954.5%$85,337.311880$45.39
Benjamin, Ronald16493$1,262.55$677.0053.6%$1,434.52242$5.93
Siddiqui, Sumbul16556$47,574.60$21,795.0047.9%$36,190.552532$14.29
Zondervan, Quinton16516$62,916.69$29,649.4247.1%$64,073.971565$40.94
Toner, Paul16576$85,390.87$39,693.2646.5%$111,739.75980$114.02
Tierney, Sean16559$31,620.29$14,400.0045.5%$30,779.71779$39.51
Simmons, Denise13783$70,646.47$29,385.0041.6%$93,897.962616$35.89
Toomey, Tim12222$75,092.81$27,067.8636.0%$41,063.881619$25.36
Volmar, Gwen16691$13,374.56$4,713.9435.2%$12,839.56248$51.77
Santos, Jeffrey16686$14,708.95$4,964.3033.8%$12,667.82147$86.18
Sivongxay, Vatsady16528$38,639.88$11,829.0030.6%$37,933.19740$51.26
Gebru, Samuel16531$66,642.14$19,805.0329.7%$65,323.20787$83.00
Okamoto, Nadya16596$10,189.49$1,235.0012.1%$10,603.52550$19.28
Lenke, Dan16771$0.00$0.00-$920.0054$17.04
Pillai, Hari16770$0.00$0.00-$0.00107$0.00
2017 City Council Campaign Receipts and Expenditures (last updated Feb 11, 2018 at 10:33pm)

Note 1: Figures reflect the period from Dec 1, 2016 through Jan 31, 2018.

Note 2: Adjustments to the totals have been made to reflect returned donations, candidate loans repaid, etc.

Note 3: There will be no additional updates except for corrections. This table is meant to give an idea what the actual total receipts and expenditures are for a full municipal election cycle. The choice to use a 14 month period is somewhat arbitrary but reflects what seems to be when campaign activity starts up and winds down.

Vote!

February 6, 2018

2017 Cambridge City Council Campaign Bank Reports

Filed under: 2017 election,Cambridge,campaign finance,City Council — Tags: , , — Robert Winters @ 10:14 pm

The following table shows the summary bank reports for 2017 Cambridge City Council candidates. You can sort by any of the fields shown by clicking on the field name – one click ascending and second click descending.

CandidateFromToStartReceiptsExpendBalanceAs OfNotes
Benjamin, Ronald01/01/1701/31/18$9.00$1,426.56$1,432.52$3.0402/01/18
Burgin, Josh06/16/1701/31/18$0.00$23,649.50$23,649.50$0.0002/01/18
Carlone, Dennis01/01/1701/31/18$17,827.87$36,169.32$43,908.61$10,088.5802/05/18Expenditures includes $8000 loan repayment
D'Ambrosio, Olivia01/01/1701/31/18$122.75$7,775.31$7,917.94-$19.8802/01/18
Devereux, Jan01/01/1701/31/18$8,715.10$55,616.36$50,574.17$13,757.2902/01/18$13672.25 transfers subtracted
Gebru, Sam01/01/1701/31/18$0.00$65,289.04$64,965.46$323.5802/01/18loans and refunds subtracted
Harding, Richard07/01/1701/31/18$1,961.06$34,985.39$34,318.46$2,627.9902/01/18$50 returned check deducted
Kelley, Craig01/01/1701/31/18$2,231.84$24,844.39$22,124.58$4,951.6502/01/18$100 returned check subtracted
Lenke, Dan08/16/1701/31/18$0.00$1,248.57$920.00$328.5702/01/18
Levy, Ilan07/16/1701/31/18$0.00$11,964.47$12,008.79-$44.3202/01/18$750 loan reimbursement subtracted
Mallon, Alanna01/01/1701/31/18$100.00$54,736.18$49,455.73$5,380.4502/01/18$900 in refunds subtracted
McGovern, Marc01/01/1701/31/18$14,966.66$70,826.09$79,416.58$6,376.1702/01/18$500 returned check subtracted
Moree, Gregg08/16/1701/15/18$0.00$905.22$905.22$0.0001/15/18$174.78 loan subtracted
Musgrave, Adriane05/16/1701/31/18$0.00$34,223.98$33,749.31$474.6702/01/18
Okamoto, Nadya03/16/1701/31/18$0.00$10,947.09$10,603.52$343.5702/01/18
Pillai, Hari07/24/1701/15/18$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.0001/15/18
Santos, Jeffrey06/07/1701/31/18$0.00$13,516.75$12,561.21$955.5402/01/18$116.61 loan subtracted
Siddiqui, Sumbul02/16/1701/31/18$0.00$45,524.60$36,190.55$9,334.0502/01/18
Simmons, Denise01/01/1701/31/18$10,179.79$70,105.13$72,689.42$7,595.5002/01/18$500 excess subtracted
Sivongxay, Vatsady01/01/1701/31/18$0.00$37,905.88$37,872.35$33.5302/01/18
Sutton, Bryan06/16/1701/31/18$0.00$1,229.49$1,208.13$21.3602/01/18
Tierney, Sean02/01/1701/31/18$0.00$31,570.29$29,029.71$2,540.5802/01/18
Toner, Paul02/16/1701/31/18$0.00$86,325.01$86,159.48$165.5302/05/18
Toomey, Tim01/01/1701/31/18$4,069.67$70,081.14$49,126.17$25,024.6402/01/18$200 refund subtracted, $18144.68 loan repayments included
Volmar, Gwen06/09/1701/31/18$0.00$12,965.56$12,430.56$535.0002/01/18
Zondervan, Quinton01/01/1701/31/18$3,510.00$62,436.05$64,666.39$1,279.6602/01/18
2017 City Council Bank Reports (updated Feb 6, 2017 at 10:14pm)

Campaign Finance Reports – 2017 City Council (updated Feb 6, 9:50pm)

Vote!

December 1, 2017

Cambridge InsideOut Episodes 271-272: Nov 28, 2017

Filed under: 2017 election,Cambridge,Cambridge InsideOut — Tags: , , , , — Robert Winters @ 7:23 pm

Episode 271 – Cambridge InsideOut: Nov 28, 2017 (Part 1)

This episode was broadcast on Nov 29, 2017 at 5:30pm. Topic: 2017 Election Data Binge (Part 1). Hosts: Judy Nathans, Robert Winters [On YouTube]

Episode 272 – Cambridge InsideOut: Nov 28, 2017 (Part 2)

This episode was broadcast on Nov 29, 2017 at 6:00pm. Topic: 2017 Election Data Binge (Part 1), including a round-by-round description of how fractional transfer would have played out in this year’s City Council election. We also reveal who would replace each member of the City Council and School Committee in the event of a vacancy. Hosts: Judy Nathans, Robert Winters [On YouTube]

[Materials used in these episodes]

November 23, 2017

The Shifting Demographic

Filed under: 2017 election,Cambridge,elections — Tags: , — Robert Winters @ 4:47 pm

The voter history file for the 2017 municipal election was made available yesterday, and it provides evidence of a dramatic shift toward younger voters in the recent election. This provides at least some partial explanation for the election results. Here are some histograms for the municipal election years (2013, 2015, 2017) followed by the federal/state election years (2012, 2014, 2016).

Municipal Elections: 2013 – 2017

2013 Election Histogram

2015 Election Histogram

2017 Election Histogram
(note the dramatic peak in the 27-29 age range)

Federal/State Elections: 2012 – 2016

2012 Election Histogram

2014 Election Histogram

2016 Election Histogram

November 14, 2017

Cambridge InsideOut Episodes 269-270: Nov 14, 2017

Filed under: 2017 election,Cambridge,Cambridge InsideOut,elections — Tags: , , , , , , — Robert Winters @ 7:59 pm

Episode 269 – Cambridge InsideOut: Nov 14, 2017 (Part 1)

This episode was broadcast on Nov 14, 2017 at 5:30pm. Topic: Post-Election Notes – Part 1. Hosts: Judy Nathans, Robert Winters [On YouTube]

Episode 270 – Cambridge InsideOut: Nov 14, 2017 (Part 2)

This episode was broadcast on Nov 14, 2017 at 6:00pm. Topic: Post-Election Notes – Part 2. Hosts: Judy Nathans, Robert Winters [On YouTube]

[Materials used in these episodes]

November 13, 2017

2017 Cambridge Election Results – Bar Graphs

Filed under: 2017 election,Cambridge,elections — Tags: , , — Robert Winters @ 9:08 am

City Council Unofficial Election Results (Wed, Nov 8, PDF, 2 pgs.)
Elected (in order of election): Simmons, Siddiqui, McGovern, Devereux, Zondervan, Mallon, Toomey, Carlone, Kelley

School Committee Unofficial Election Results (Wed, Nov 8, PDF, 1 pg.)
Elected: Nolan, Bowman, Dexter, Fantini, Kelley, Kimbrough

In addition to the spreadsheets, you may also be interested in seeing this displayed graphically, e.g. with bar graphs. If you click on either of these you’ll find a bar at the bottom that will enable you to click through the rounds one-by-one to watch how the transfers proceed.

2017CouncilCounts 2017SchoolCounts
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