Cambridge Civic Journal Forum

November 4, 2017

Age and Turnout: comparing the 2015 and 2017 Cambridge elections

Filed under: 2015 Election,2017 election,Cambridge,elections — Tags: , , — Robert Winters @ 10:48 pm

As we get ready for this year’s 2017 Cambridge municipal election, here are a few "Fun Facts":

The total number of registered voters for the Nov 2017 election is 66,354. Their median age is 37.9. Here’s how their ages (as of Election Day – Nov 7, 2017) are distributed (in 3-year intervals):

Voter age - 2017
Registered Voters – 2017

For the Nov 2015 election, there were 63,338 registered voters with identified birthdates. Their median age was 38.7. Here’s how their ages (as of Election Day – Nov 3, 2015) were distributed (in 3-year intervals):

Registered Voters - 2015
Registered Voters – 2015

Of these registered voters, 17,959 voted in the 2015 municipal election. Their median age was 56.0. Here’s how their ages were distributed (in 3-year intervals):

Registered Voters 2015
Registered Voters Who Voted in the 2015 Municipal Election

If you compare 2015 and 2017, you can see that most of the gains in registered voters are in the younger age ranges – especially the 24-29 range.

compare 2015 and 2017

It will be interesting to see if these shifts will be reflected in the age distribution of those who vote in the Nov 2017 election.


The total voter turnout has dropped over the years but has remained relatively stable for the last several municipal elections.

Voter Turnout - Cambridge Municipal Elections

% Turnout - Cambridge Municipal Elections

Turnout data - Cambridge municipal elections

February 20, 2016

Campaign Finance – 2015 Cambridge City Council Candidates

Filed under: 2015 Election,Cambridge,campaign finance,elections — Tags: , , , — Robert Winters @ 9:08 pm

Vote!This year (2015) is a municipal election year and the roster of candidates is now final. Here is where the campaign accounts stand for incumbents and challengers for Cambridge City Council. This information will be updated as the year progresses.

It will be interesting to see how the new individual contribution limit of $1000/year (up from $500/year) affects campaign receipts and expenditures.

City Council Campaign Finance - 2015 (based on bank reports, updated Feb 20, 2016)

CandidatesStartEndOpenReceiptsExpendBalance#1 Votes$ per #1 Vote
Benzan, Dennis1-Jan-1515-Feb-16$8207.45$70200.89$78273.51$134.84
1159$67.54
Carlone, Dennis1-Jan-1515-Feb-16$4272.67$33079.30$37256.45$95.521002$37.18
Cheung, Leland1-Jan-1515-Feb-16$6002.06$95266.51$39430.61$61837.961189$33.16
Connolly, Mike16-Jul-1515-Feb-16$0.00$50381.44$39581.86$10799.58841$47.07
Courtney, Kim1-Jan-1515-Dec-15$0.00$1869.94$1869.94$0.0072$25.97
Davidson, Mariko25-Jun-1515-Feb-16$0.00$15232.25$15232.25$0.00853$17.86
DeGoes, Plineo16-Jun-1515-Dec-15$0.00$4550.00$4550.00$0.0051$89.22
Devereux, Jan1-Jan-1515-Feb-16$0.00$55720.44$53162.94$2557.501307$40.68
Dietrich, Xavier13-Jul-1515-Dec-15$0.00$2360.00$2360.00$0.0027$78.90
Kelley, Craig1-Jan-1515-Feb-16$2601.58$39626.05$37858.49$4369.141434$26.40
Levy, Ilan13-Jul-1531-Dec-15$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00153$0.00
Maher, David1-Jan-1515-Feb-16$28741.21$55839.21$83063.27$1517.151637$50.74
Mahoney, Paul F.2-Jul-1515-Feb-16$0.00$5075.00$2376.64$2698.36251$9.47
Mazen, Nadeem1-Jan-1515-Feb-16$12273.54$69320.74$81508.96$85.321929$42.25
McGovern, Marc1-Jan-1515-Feb-16$6098.45$67556.62$72900.57$754.501202$60.65
Mello, Gary1-Jul-1531-Dec-15$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00119$0.00
Moree, Gregg1-Jul-1515-Feb-16$0.00$13320.00$13316.42$3.5878$170.72
Sanzone, John1-May-1515-Feb-16$0.00$3085.28$2280.50$804.7832$71.27
Simmons, Denise1-Jan-1515-Feb-16$7447.29$59939.41$61288.24$6098.461715$35.74
Toomey, Tim1-Jan-1531-Dec-15$18782.29$48207.68$60573.92$6416.051416$42.78
vanBeuzekom, Minka 1-Jan-1515-Feb-16$7380.40$46013.45$52113.55$1280.301014$51.39
Waite, Romaine2-Jul-1515-Feb-16$0.00$3687.95$3687.95$0.00
274$13.46
Williamson, James1-Jul-1531-Dec-15$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.0072$0.00

The table can be sorted by category in ascending or descending order by clicking on the category name in the top row.

The $ per #1 Vote figures will continue to rise as expenditure reports continue to be filed.

All 2015 Campaign Finance Report Summaries (PDF) – last updated Feb 20, 2016

You can also look up these periodic reports (and more) yourself at the OCPF website.

The information in the tables below was compiled in early December 2015. Some additional receipts, expenditures, returned donations, etc. have occurred since then. The tables may be updated at some point in the future to reflect these changes.


Dollars Spent per #1 Vote

DollarVote2015

Percentage of Campaign Receipts from Cambridge

CambridgePct2015

Additional Campaign Finance Details

Finance2015Details

February 6, 2016

Cambridge School Committee 2015 Campaign Finance Summaries

Cambridge School Committee 2015 Campaign Finance Summaries (updated Mar 7, 2016)

CandidateStartReceiptsExpendituresBalanceIn-KindCambridge $% Cambridge (through Oct)#1 Votes$/voteNotes
Manikka Bowman$0.00$15,256.98$13,251.61$2,005.37$0.00$2,985.0024.4%1488$8.91
Pia Cisternino$0.00$1,607.30$1,607.30$0.00$149.00 $1,134.3777.7%657$2.45account closed
Fran Cronin$1,560.03$12,765.00$11,229.67$3,095.36$0.00 $7,640.0070.8%1418$7.92$0 liabilities
Jake Crutchfield$0.00$8,692.00$8,650.93$41.07$400.00 $375.005.1%1221$7.09
Emily Dexter$0.00$7,315.38$4,740.06$2,575.32$0.00 $5,441.6782.7%1402$3.38$4416 liab. to candidate
Fred Fantini$3,786.27$8,136.00$6,447.20$5,475.07$0.00 $2,950.0052.2%2721$2.37$14,396 liab. to candidate
Richard Harding$0.00$14,191.60$13,985.15$206.45$0.00$7621.5070.2%1989$7.03$6,595.54 liab. to candidate
Elechi Kadete$47.00$688.41$724.45$10.96$0.00$283.5241.2%427$1.70report has errors in dates and amounts
Kathleen Kelly$1,754.85$12,574.00$8,641.80$5,687.05$0.00 $9,639.0087.9%1710$5.05$3,000 liab. to candidate
Patricia Nolan$1,081.40$7,288.00$8,289.16$80.24$0.00 $1,510.0032.0%3006$2.76$8,850 liab. to candidate
David Weinstein$0.00$7,157.11$5,553.08$1,604.03$150.00 $1,409.3546.9%696$7.98$1,252.11 liab. to candidate

Vote!Note:Non-itemized receipts (through Oct 2015) are not included in the Cambridge receipts. Any candidate with a significant amount of non-itemized receipts will have a lower percentage of Cambridge receipts.

The receipts and expenses shown cover all of 2015.

December 6, 2015

Who Voted in the 2015 Cambridge Municipal Election?

Filed under: 2013 Election,2014 Election,2015 Election,Cambridge,elections — Tags: — Robert Winters @ 3:17 am

Who Voted in the 2015 Cambridge Municipal Election?

For the November 2015 Municipal Election, there were 63,338 registered voters with identified birthdates. Their median age was 38.7. Here’s how their ages as of Election Day (Nov 3, 2015) were distributed (in 3-year intervals):

Registered Voters - 2015
Registered Voters – 2015

Of these registered voters, 17,885 voted in the 2015 municipal election. Their median age was 56.0. Here’s how their ages as of Election Day (Nov 3, 2015) were distributed (in 3-year intervals):

Registered Voters 2015
Registered Voters Who Voted in the 2015 Municipal Election


For the November 2014 State Election, there were 66,315 registered voters with identified birthdates. Their median age was 37.9. Here’s how their ages as of Election Day (Nov 4, 2014) were distributed (in 3-year intervals):

Registered Voters 2015
Registered Voters – 2014

Of these registered voters, 32,569 voted in the 2014 State Election. Their median age was 49.3. Here’s how their ages as of Election Day (Nov 4, 2014) were distributed (in 3-year intervals):

Registered Voters 2015
Registered Voters Who Voted in the 2014 State Election


For the November 2013 Municipal Election, there were 70,601 registered voters with identified birthdates. Their median age was 37.0. Here’s how their ages as of Election Day (Nov 5, 2013) were distributed (in 3-year intervals):

Registered Voters - 2015
Registered Voters – 2013

Of these registered voters, 17,800 voted in the 2013 Municipal Election. Their median age was 56.4. Here’s how their ages as of Election Day (Nov 5, 2013) were distributed (in 3-year intervals):

Registered Voters 2015
Registered Voters Who Voted in the 2013 Municipal Election


Changes from 2013 to 2015:

The total number of voters in the 2013 and 2015 Cambridge Municipal Elections were comparable, but there were some noticeable differences by age. Here’s a table showing some of this information:

age voted
2015
2015 pct.
turnout
voted
2014
2014 pct.
turnout
voted
2013
2013 pct.
turnout
2013 to 2015
change
18-20 205 15.5 392 21.6 291 12.4 –86
21-23 303 8.2 884 25.1 361 10.1 –58
24-26 666 12.4 1956 32.6 620 9.7 +46
27-29 878 12.8 2423 33.5 763 9.5 +115
30-32 787 12.6 2329 34.8 791 10.5 –4
33-35 841 17.3 1974 37.1 742 12.5 +99
36-38 797 21.7 1680 43.3 632 14.6 +165
39-41 709 24.1 1406 46.8 677 21.2 +32
42-44 741 30.3 1355 50.8 763 27.0 –22
45-47 786 32.8 1331 56.7 733 29.5 +53
48-50 759 35.4 1297 57.7 788 33.5 –29
51-53 855 38.6 1485 64.6 915 38.7 –60
54-56 931 42.2 1571 68.4 1050 42.9 –119
57-59 1086 46.5 1692 70.0 1095 45.4 –9
60-62 1067 45.1 1824 74.4 1200 47.5 –133
63-65 1171 50.0 1797 75.6 1229 50.8 –58
66-68 1219 53.0 1775 78.3 1172 53.1 +47
69-71 1035 56.0 1428 77.8 1015 57.1 +20
72-74 880 57.3 1108 79.5 738 59.0 +142
75-77 608 57.4 797 76.6 596 58.4 +12
78-80 500 57.7 638 76.3 460 55.8 +40
81-83 351 52.2 483 70.0 382 53.9 –31
84-86 285 47.9 402 66.7 321 54.3 –36
87-89 202 47.6 263 58.8 224 48.0 –22
90-92 137 42.5 163 51.3 139 41.1 –2
93-95 59 33.0 71 38.0 64 37.6 –5
96-98 17 22.7 29 39.2 27 30.3 –10
99-101 10 35.7 14 36.8 11 27.5 –1
102-104 0 0.0 2 16.7 0 0.0 0
105-107 0 0.0 0 0.0 1 25.0 –1
Total 17885 28.2 32569 49.1 17800 25.2 +85

2013 to 2015

November 17, 2015

Cambridge InsideOut Episodes 91 and 92 – Digging into the ballot data

Filed under: 2015 Election,Cambridge InsideOut,elections — Tags: , , , — Robert Winters @ 11:09 pm

Cambridge InsideOut this week took a close look at the ballot data from the 2015 Cambridge municipal election.

Cambridge InsideOut Episode 91 (Part 1)

This episode was broadcast on Nov 17, 2015 at 5:30pm. The hosts are Judy Nathans and Robert Winters. [On YouTube]

Cambridge InsideOut Episode 92 (Part 2)

This episode was broadcast on Nov 17, 2015 at 6:00pm. The hosts are Judy Nathans and Robert Winters. [On YouTube]

References materials for these shows

November 13, 2015

Final Official Election Results – Cambridge 2015 Municipal Election

Final Official Election Results (Nov 13, 2015) – including all ballots

City Council (in order of election)
Nadeem Mazen
Denise Simmons
David Maher
Jan Devereux
Tim Toomey
Craig Kelley
Leland Cheung
Marc McGovern
Dennis Carlone

Incumbent Dennis Benzan is defeated

Vote!School Committee (in order of election)
Patty Nolan
Fred Fantini
Richard Harding
Kathleen Kelly
Manikka Bowman
Emily Dexter

Incumbent Fran Cronin is defeated

Full Final Official Election Results (Nov 13, 2015) – City Council & School Committee

City Council #1 Vote Distribution by Ward/Precinct (PDF)

School Committee #1 Vote Distribution by Ward/Precinct (PDF)

Alternate measures of Popularity – 2015 City Council Election (PDF)

Unofficial Election Results (Nov 4, 2015) – including all auxiliary ballots

City Council (in order of election)
Nadeem Mazen
Denise Simmons
David Maher
Jan Devereux
Tim Toomey
Leland Cheung
Craig Kelley
Marc McGovern
Dennis Carlone

Incumbent Dennis Benzan is defeated

School Committee (in order of election)
Patty Nolan
Fred Fantini
Richard Harding
Kathleen Kelly
Manikka Bowman
Emily Dexter

Incumbent Fran Cronin is defeated

Full Unofficial Election Results (Nov 4, 2015) – City Council & School Committee
Preliminary Election Results (Nov 3, 2015) – not including auxiliary ballots

City Council (in order of election)
Nadeem Mazen
Denise Simmons
Jan Devereux
David Maher
Craig Kelley
Dennis Carlone
Leland Cheung
Tim Toomey
Marc McGovern

Incumbent Dennis Benzan is defeated

School Committee (in order of election)
Patty Nolan
Fred Fantini
Richard Harding
Kathleen Kelly
Manikka Bowman
Emily Dexter

Incumbent Fran Cronin is defeated

Full Preliminary Election Results (Nov 3, 2015) – City Council & School Committee

Note 1: On Tuesday night, Nov 3, the Election Commission announced the preliminary winners in the order of election.

Note 2: On Wednesday, Nov 4, hundreds of additional "auxiliary ballots" were scrutinized for voter intent and then included with the Tuesday ballots to determine the "Unofficial Results". This produced the same winners, though in the City Council race the order in which candidates were elected changed.

Note 3: On Friday, Nov 13, the Final Results were determined when a small number of overseas absentee ballots and provisional ballots were examined. This resulted in an additional 8 ballots for each of the City Council and School Committee races. The margins in both the City Council and School Committee elections were such that there was no realistic possibility that the candidates elected would change, though the order in which Craig Kelley (6th) and Leland Cheung (7th) were elected was reversed.

election2015official
Council2015wdpct
School2015wdpct

November 11, 2015

Cambridge InsideOut Episodes 89 and 90 – Making Sense of the 2015 Cambridge Municipal Election Results

Filed under: 2015 Election,Cambridge,Cambridge InsideOut — Tags: , , , — Robert Winters @ 1:22 am

Cambridge InsideOut this week took a look at the 2015 election results.

Cambridge InsideOut Episode 89 (Part 1)

This episode was broadcast on Nov 10, 2015 at 5:30pm. The hosts are Judy Nathans and Robert Winters. [On YouTube]

Cambridge InsideOut Episode 90 (Part 2)

This episode was broadcast on Nov 10, 2015 at 6:00pm. The hosts are Judy Nathans and Robert Winters. [On YouTube]

Full Unofficial Election Results (Nov 4, 2015) – City Council & School Committee

November 8, 2015

After the Storm – Nov 9, 2015 Cambridge City Council Agenda

After the Storm – Nov 9, 2015 Cambridge City Council Agenda

In Counting there is StrengthThe election results from this past week are now known and the theories are flying about why some candidates fared well and why others will say farewell. Most of this pseudoanalysis is just for entertainment purposes, but there are some basic political truths that continue to be self-evident. Most of all, local elections continue to be won or lost not so much on big issues and big money but rather on old-fashioned hand-to-hand retail-level politics. In particular, in a PR election it’s important to secure your political base whether that’s based on the positions you take, the favors you perform, the neighborhood you come from, or what you look like. It also remains the case that voter turnout is what secures the margins that give victory to some candidates and defeat to others. While others exchange theories, I’m just sitting here waiting for information on how many people voted in each precinct and how that affected the #1 vote totals of particular candidates. Until then, I’ll just allow myself to be entertained by the punditry of others.

The City Council returns on Monday with an agenda long on congratulations and short on substance. The real business took place last week. Here are a few items that may be of interest:

Applications & Petitions #1. A zoning petition has been received from Milford Medicinals, Inc., to amend the Cambridge Zoning Map to include 1001 Massachusetts Avenue in the MMD-1 Zoning Overlay.

The last 4 signatures on the petition were obviously done by the same person. Also, this proposal calls for a change to the existing zoning for a single address to permit a use that is inconsistent with the abutting district (at least in the sense that districts have already been established elsewhere for this proposed use). It may therefore be illegal spot zoning. More significantly, what exactly then was the purpose of the zoning change enacted on Dec 16, 2013 establishing zones where medical marijuana dispensaries may be located?

Order #1. That the City Manager is requested to update condo conversion numbers from 2010.   Councillor Cheung

Is my triple-decker the last one left in Cambridge that hasn’t been converted into overpriced condominiums? I’m thinking of digging a perimeter moat filled with alligators that feed on real estate agents.

Communications & Reports from City Officers #1. A communication was received from Donna P. Lopez, City Clerk, transmitting modifications to the proposed MXD Zoning Petition and Kendall Square Urban Renewal Plan Amendment.

This is really the only agenda item that seems remotely interesting. It’s a huge document (98 page PDF) that seems to promote all the right things, but you be the judge.

Communications & Reports from City Officers #2. A communication was received from Donna P. Lopez, City Clerk, transmitting a response to the Subpoena Duces Tecum issued by the City Council on Oct 30, 2015 pursuant to Policy Order #27 adopted on Oct 19, 2015.

I pride myself on being well informed on most matters that come before the Cambridge City Council. This item may be the most cryptic agenda item I’ve ever seen. Honestly, I haven’t got a clue what it means.

That’s all for now, folks. I’m still just waiting patiently for those ward/precinct turnout and vote distribution numbers. I’m also eager to analyze the ballot data after the Final Election Results are determined this coming Friday the Thirteenth. – Robert Winters

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